Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Retail Trade Earnings Growth
Across Florida Counties
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
Florida:
2010-2022 = 5.22%
2022 = 6.46%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real retail trade earnings growth across all of Florida's 67 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Florida Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real retail trade earnings growth of Florida's 67 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Retail Trade
Earnings Growth
Florida:
2010-2022 = 5.22%
2022 = 6.46%
This figure displays the 67 counties of Florida as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real retail trade earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real retail trade earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 5.22%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 5.22% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (5.22%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 26 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 37 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 29 counties whose most recent (2022) real retail trade earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (6.46%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 34 counties whose real retail trade earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 67 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 5.22% over 2010-2022 and 6.46% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (5.22%) and near-term (6.46%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (5.22%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Florida average (6.46%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (5.22%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (6.46%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (5.22%) and near-term (6.46%).
   
 
Summary of Florida's 67 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(6.46%)
Above
(6.46%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(5.22%)
11
15
26
Below
(5.22%)
23
14
37
 
34
29
63
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Florida:
2010-2022 = 5.22%
2022 = 6.46%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Florida counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Florida's average annual real retail trade earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 5.22%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.46%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Florida's 67 counties, 15 (22%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Florida:
2010-2022 = 5.22%
2022 = 6.46%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 11 Florida counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 5.22%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 6.46%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 11 (16%) of Florida's 67 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Florida:
2010-2022 = 5.22%
2022 = 6.46%
This figure shows the distribution of the 14 Florida counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 5.22%), while they outpaced Florida's average near-term (2022 = 6.46%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Florida's 67 counties, 21% (14) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Florida:
2010-2022 = 5.22%
2022 = 6.46%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 23 Florida counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real retail trade earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 5.22%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.46%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real retail trade earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
34% of Florida's counties, 23 of 67, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Florida
Real* Retail Trade Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
15
5.89
 
25
6.71
7,201,833
 
25
5.32
 
22
6.97
478,231
 
9
6.77
 
13
7.71
26,959
 
7
6.84
 
8
8.52
953,854
 
20
5.49
 
24
6.72
2,300,417
 
14
6.11
 
10
7.86
949,787
 
19
5.65
 
11
7.84
162,714
 
12
6.20
 
16
7.59
4,809,128
 
5
7.48
 
2
11.09
1,382,644
 
13
6.16
 
28
6.65
1,640,543
 
2
8.30
 
12
7.80
670,160
 
22
5.47
 
21
6.97
1,342,572
 
3
7.91
 
4
9.68
117,606
 
24
5.34
 
31
6.47
1,391,200
 
1
9.45
 
23
6.93
283,167
Slipping Counties
 
11
6.61
 
39
5.73
1,393,026
 
26
5.28
 
57
3.52
177,475
 
23
5.44
 
38
5.80
181,953
 
17
5.75
 
58
3.43
13,962
 
21
5.49
 
34
6.02
4,607,218
 
10
6.73
 
44
5.18
1,082,353
 
8
6.83
 
35
5.86
817,722
 
6
7.02
 
42
5.33
790,464
 
18
5.66
 
45
5.08
612,747
 
16
5.77
 
32
6.33
303,170
 
4
7.77
 
48
4.91
229,785
Gaining Counties
 
46
4.12
 
26
6.69
654,813
 
29
5.10
 
1
12.01
55,014
 
63
0.19
 
18
7.48
47,399
 
51
3.81
 
3
10.96
11,600
 
27
5.19
 
9
8.14
3,344,650
 
56
2.97
 
14
7.70
9,446
 
58
2.66
 
17
7.54
34,301
 
42
4.54
 
5
9.59
219,423
 
34
4.96
 
29
6.63
23,173
 
41
4.57
 
15
7.64
79,481
 
61
1.79
 
27
6.65
2,875,166
 
54
3.47
 
7
8.55
42,548
 
32
5.06
 
19
7.44
37,064
 
53
3.58
 
30
6.54
30,787
Lagging Counties
 
36
4.78
 
65
-1.41
43,154
 
33
5.02
 
50
4.80
574,687
 
35
4.86
 
51
4.66
1,401,257
 
38
4.70
 
62
2.32
296,550
 
49
3.98
 
56
3.81
400,379
 
44
4.31
 
49
4.85
849,792
 
55
3.35
 
60
2.69
50,463
 
37
4.76
 
63
2.27
23,835
 
47
4.06
 
61
2.39
64,284
 
31
5.08
 
41
5.46
365,839
 
57
2.83
 
54
4.07
14,775
 
45
4.25
 
40
5.57
427,880
 
59
2.62
 
64
0.84
78,401
 
30
5.09
 
59
3.34
15,140
 
62
0.57
 
53
4.30
5,439
 
48
4.02
 
43
5.22
754,527
 
52
3.75
 
55
3.83
61,840
 
43
4.44
 
46
5.00
518,764
 
28
5.17
 
33
6.10
8,297,157
 
50
3.83
 
36
5.85
313,148
 
39
4.66
 
37
5.82
4,365,055
 
60
2.54
 
52
4.40
113,088
 
40
4.59
 
47
4.99
1,456,334
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
6
9.03
11,636
 
U
U
 
20
7.30
4,701
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5.22
 
6.46
61,905,147
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.97
 
3.04
861,699,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_610700_LSGL
 
   
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